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As the scientific consensus concerning
global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential
impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance.
However, in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications
of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of
the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and
Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million
people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food
supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In
this study, an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta
River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial
Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different
Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and CanESM2) as part of the CORDEX
Africa project, were used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow
by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. The results
showed that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future,
although the downscaled HadGEM2-ES scenario indicated a decreasing trend by 2090s.
The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition.
In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios for the
Volta River Basin, which make different assumptions about population growth and
increases in the area of agricultural land use. However, the effects of
changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate
change impact. Under combined impact from climate change (CNRM-CM5) and medium+
socio-economic changes, the extreme high flow (Q5) of Black Volta River is
projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta
outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. These
results provide valuable information assisting future water resource
development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin.